The most appropriate model of the radioactive decay of a group of atoms from the options given is popping a bag of popcorn.
This is because, much like the unpredictable timing of individual kernels popping in a bag of popcorn, radioactive decay occurs randomly and independently for each atom in a sample. The overall process can be observed statistically (like the number of kernels that pop), but the exact moment each individual atom decays is unpredictable, making this analogy suitable.