The best analysis for why unemployment is expected to change in 2023 from the given responses is:
Unemployment will continue to decrease due to expansionary monetary policy.
This response highlights a direct relationship between monetary policy and unemployment rates, which is a common economic analysis. Expansionary monetary policy typically aims to stimulate economic growth, which can lead to job creation and a decrease in unemployment. The other options either reference past GDP trends that may not reflect the current situation or improperly attribute changes in unemployment to the COVID-19 pandemic without considering other contributing factors.