To find the value of the stock given the expected future dividends, we can use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM). The stock's value is calculated by predicting the future dividends for a certain period, discounting them to the present value, and then considering the stock's value at the end of that period as a perpetuity.
1. Calculate future dividends for the first 3 years:
The stock just paid a dividend of \( D_0 = 1.21 \).
Year 1:
\[ D_1 = D_0 \times (1 + g_1) = 1.21 \times (1 + 0.2559) = 1.21 \times 1.2559 \approx 1.519 \]
Year 2:
\[ D_2 = D_1 \times (1 + g_1) = 1.519 \times (1 + 0.2559) \approx 1.519 \times 1.2559 \approx 1.907 \]
Year 3:
\[ D_3 = D_2 \times (1 + g_1) = 1.907 \times (1 + 0.2559) \approx 1.907 \times 1.2559 \approx 2.395 \]
2. Calculate the dividend for Year 4 (where the growth changes):
From year 4 onward, the dividend will grow at \( g_2 = 4.63% \).
\[ D_4 = D_3 \times (1 + g_2) = 2.395 \times (1 + 0.0463) = 2.395 \times 1.0463 \approx 2.509 \]
3. Calculate the present value of dividends for the first 3 years:
Now we need to discount the dividends for years 1 to 3 back to the present using the required return of \( r = 10.49% \).
\[ PV(D_1) = \frac{D_1}{(1 + r)^1} = \frac{1.519}{(1 + 0.1049)} = \frac{1.519}{1.1049} \approx 1.376 \] \[ PV(D_2) = \frac{D_2}{(1 + r)^2} = \frac{1.907}{(1 + 0.1049)^2} = \frac{1.907}{1.22095} \approx 1.564 \] \[ PV(D_3) = \frac{D_3}{(1 + r)^3} = \frac{2.395}{(1 + 0.1049)^3} = \frac{2.395}{1.34846} \approx 1.773 \]
4. Sum the present value of the dividends for the first 3 years:
\[ \text{Total PV (Years 1-3)} = PV(D_1) + PV(D_2) + PV(D_3) \approx 1.376 + 1.564 + 1.773 \approx 4.713 \]
5. Calculate the present value of all dividends from Year 4 onwards (perpetuity):
Starting from Year 4, the dividends will grow perpetually at \( g_2 = 4.63%. \)
The value at Year 3, which is the present value of all future dividends from Year 4 onward, can be calculated using the formula for a growing perpetuity:
\[ P_3 = \frac{D_4}{r - g_2} \] \[ P_3 = \frac{2.509}{0.1049 - 0.0463} = \frac{2.509}{0.0586} \approx 42.851 \]
6. Now discount \( P_3 \) back to present value:
\[ PV(P_3) = \frac{P_3}{(1+r)^3} = \frac{42.851}{1.34846} \approx 31.76 \]
7. Calculate the total present value of the stock:
Finally, we add the present values of the first three years of dividends and the present value of the perpetuity:
\[ \text{Stock Value} = \text{Total PV (Years 1-3)} + PV(P_3) \approx 4.713 + 31.76 \approx 36.473 \]
Conclusion:
The value of the stock is approximately $36.47.