To predict the cotton yield and production for fall 2023 based on drought and high temperatures, which generally lead to lower yields, we can consider the following:
- In a state like Texas, moisture is essential for cotton production. Given that the year 2020 was drier than normal and assuming similar conditions in 2023, it is plausible to predict lower yields.
- If the trend continues as in past drought years, such as 2020, which could have resulted in yields in the 4-6 million bale range or lower, it's reasonable to infer that 2023 might not see a recovery and could produce similar or even lesser amounts.
Given these factors, I would predict that the number of million bales of cotton harvested during the fall of 2023 will likely be in the range of 2-4 million bales.