You want to obtain a sample to estimate the proportion of a population that possess a particular genetic marker. Based on previous evidence, you believe approximately p*=59%

of the population have the genetic marker. You would like to be 98% confident that your estimate is within 5% of the true population proportion. How large of a sample size is required?

n =

Do not round mid-calculation. However, you may use a critical value accurate to three decimal places.

1 answer

To determine the required sample size for estimating a population proportion \( p \) with a specified level of confidence and margin of error, you can use the formula for the sample size \( n \):

\[ n = \left( \frac{Z^2 \cdot p^* \cdot (1 - p^*)}{E^2} \right) \]

Where:

  • \( Z \) is the z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level.
  • \( p^* \) is the estimated population proportion.
  • \( E \) is the desired margin of error.

Step 1: Find the Z-score for a 98% confidence level

For a 98% confidence level, the critical value \( Z \) can be found using a Z-table or calculator. The Z-score for 98% confidence (two-tailed) is approximately:

\[ Z \approx 2.326 \]

Step 2: Substitute the known values into the formula

Given:

  • \( p^* = 0.59 \)
  • \( E = 0.05 \)

Step 3: Calculate \( n \)

Substituting the values into the formula:

\[ n = \frac{(2.326)^2 \cdot 0.59 \cdot (1 - 0.59)}{(0.05)^2} \]

Calculating each part:

  1. Calculate \( Z^2 \): \[ (2.326)^2 \approx 5.419 \]

  2. Calculate \( p^(1 - p^) \): \[ 0.59 \cdot (1 - 0.59) = 0.59 \cdot 0.41 \approx 0.2419 \]

  3. Calculate \( E^2 \): \[ (0.05)^2 = 0.0025 \]

Putting these into the sample size formula:

\[ n = \frac{5.419 \cdot 0.2419}{0.0025} \]

Now calculate the numerator:

\[ 5.419 \cdot 0.2419 \approx 1.3106 \]

Now calculate \( n \):

\[ n = \frac{1.3106}{0.0025} \approx 524.24 \]

Since you cannot have a fraction of a sample, round up to the next whole number:

\[ n \approx 525 \]

Final Answer:

\[ n = 525 \]

Thus, the required sample size is 525.