Question

The weather forecast for next season calls for a 10% chance of wind with no rain or clouds, a 20% chance of rain with no wind, a 30% chance of clouds with no wind or rain, and a 40% chance of only sunshine. Describe a 10-section spinner that could be used to model this situation. Which forecast is most likely?

Answer 1

To create a 10-section spinner that models the given weather forecast, we can allocate each section according to the probabilities of different weather conditions. Here are the forecasts and the corresponding allocations:

1. **10% chance of wind with no rain or clouds**: This can be represented by 1 section of the spinner. (1 section out of 10)

2. **20% chance of rain with no wind**: This can be represented by 2 sections of the spinner. (2 sections out of 10)

3. **30% chance of clouds with no wind or rain**: This can be represented by 3 sections of the spinner. (3 sections out of 10)

4. **40% chance of only sunshine**: This can be represented by 4 sections of the spinner. (4 sections out of 10)

To summarize the allocation, the sections on the spinner would be distributed as follows:

- **Wind only**: 1 section
- **Rain only**: 2 sections
- **Clouds only**: 3 sections
- **Sunshine only**: 4 sections

Now we have a total of 10 sections that correspond to the probabilities given in the forecast.

**Most Likely Forecast:**
The forecast with the highest probability is "only sunshine," which has a 40% chance, represented by 4 sections on the spinner. Therefore, the most likely weather condition according to the forecast is sunshine.