The most likely outcome is:
The coral reef will experience a bleaching event.
Coral bleaching occurs when corals become stressed due to changes in their environment, such as increased water temperatures. This stress can cause corals to expel the zooxanthellae (the symbiotic algae living in their tissues), leading to a loss of color and a decline in health. A 1°C increase in water temperature can trigger such events, especially in coral reefs already under threat from other factors.