We guess, based on historical data, that 30% of graduating high-school seniors in a large city will have completed a first-year calculus course. What's the minimum sample size needed to construct a 95% confidence interval for a proportion with a margin of error of 2.5%?

A. 323

B. 1, 291

C. 1, 290

D. 1,536

Ε. 1,537

1 answer

To calculate the minimum sample size needed for a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error of 2.5%, we can use the formula:

n = (Z^2 * p * (1-p)) / E^2

Where:
n = sample size
Z = z-score for a 95% confidence interval (1.96)
p = estimated proportion (0.30)
E = margin of error (0.025)

Plugging in the values:

n = (1.96^2 * 0.30 * (1-0.30)) / 0.025^2
n = (3.8416 * 0.30 * 0.70) / 0.000625
n = (0.808608) / 0.000625
n = 1293.7728

Since we can't have a fraction of a person in a sample, we need to round up to the nearest whole number. Therefore, the minimum sample size needed is 1,294, which is closest to option B.