Ex- post forecasting
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Ex-post forecasting refers to a method of forecasting that evaluates the accuracy of past forecasts. In other words, it involves looking at how well a previous forecast predicted what actually happened. This method can be used to identify the strengths and weaknesses of a forecasting model or approach and can help to improve future forecasts. It can also be used to evaluate the performance of individuals or teams responsible for making the forecasts. By comparing past forecasts to actual outcomes, it is possible to determine whether the forecasts were accurate, and if not, what factors contributed to the errors. Additionally, ex-post forecasting can be used as a tool for post-mortem analysis of past decisions and actions in order to learn from mistakes and improve decision-making in the future.