Question

Consider a smaller dataset with only four discrete attributes (Shipping Line, US Port, Foreign Port, Weight), and the following conditional probability distributions:

Shipping Line: CSCO (70%), ASCO (30%)
Foreign Port | Shipping Line = CSCO: Yokohama (40%), Vancouver (60%)
Foreign Port | Shipping Line = ASCO: Vancouver (100%)
US Port | Shipping Line = ASCO: Seattle (100%)
US Port | Shipping Line = CSCO: Seattle (80%), Los Angeles (20%)
Weight | Shipping Line = CSCO, Foreign Port = Vancouver: Light (30%), Medium (50%), Heavy (20%)
Weight | Shipping Line = CSCO, Foreign Port = Yokohama: Light (10%), Medium (30%), Heavy (60%)
Weight | Shipping Line = ASCO, Foreign Port = Vancouver: Light (15%), Medium (70%), Heavy (15%)
Which of the following packages is most anomalous?
a) A heavy package shipped from Vancouver to Seattle by ASCO
b) A heavy package shipped from Vancouver to Seattle by CSCO
c) A heavy package shipped from Yokohama to Los Angeles by CSCO
To answer this question, compute the likelihood of each package given the Bayesian Network (lowest likelihood = most anomalous). You must show your calculations to receive credit.