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For Major League Baseball the expected win percentage is given by

Win Ratio
=

(runs scored)²
(runs scored)²+ (runs allowed)²
Win Ratio =
(runs scored)²+ (runs allowed)²
(runs scored)²



For the 2021 season the Cincinnati Reds scored 786 runs and allowed 760 runs.

Based on the Win Ratio equation what is the expected win ratio to the nearest thousandth?

(Note that the thousandth is the 3rd digit after the decimal so a number such as 0.4279 would be rounded to 0.428.)

In a 162 game season how many wins would this have given the Reds (their real record was 83-79)? Round to the nearest whole number.

3 answers

To calculate the expected win ratio based on the provided formula, we can substitute the figures from the Cincinnati Reds for the 2021 season into the win ratio equation.

The formula for the Win Ratio is:

\[ \text{Win Ratio} = \frac{(\text{runs scored})^2}{(\text{runs scored})^2 + (\text{runs allowed})^2} \]

Using the Reds' runs scored (786) and runs allowed (760):

  1. Calculate \((\text{runs scored})^2\): \[ (786)^2 = 616996 \]

  2. Calculate \((\text{runs allowed})^2\): \[ (760)^2 = 577600 \]

  3. Compute the total of \((\text{runs scored})^2 + (\text{runs allowed})^2\): \[ 616996 + 577600 = 1192596 \]

  4. Now, substitute these values back into the Win Ratio formula: \[ \text{Win Ratio} = \frac{616996}{1192596} \]

  5. Perform the division: \[ \text{Win Ratio} \approx 0.517 \]

So, rounded to the nearest thousandth, the expected win ratio is 0.517.

Next, we calculate the expected number of wins in a 162 game season:

\[ \text{Expected Wins} = \text{Win Ratio} \times 162 \]

Substituting the win ratio we calculated:

\[ \text{Expected Wins} = 0.517 \times 162 \approx 83.754 \]

Rounding to the nearest whole number, the expected number of wins for the Reds would be 84 wins.

In summary:

  • The expected win ratio is 0.517.
  • The expected number of wins in a 162 game season is 84 wins.
In a 162 game season how many wins would you expect a team to win that scored
794
794 runs and allowed
673
673 runs? Round to the nearest whole number.

To calculate the expected number of wins for a team that scored 794 runs and allowed 673 runs, we will use the formula for the Win Ratio:

\[ \text{Win Ratio} = \frac{(\text{runs scored})^2}{(\text{runs scored})^2 + (\text{runs allowed})^2} \]

Step 1: Calculate \((\text{runs scored})^2\)

\[ (794)^2 = 630036 \]

Step 2: Calculate \((\text{runs allowed})^2\)

\[ (673)^2 = 452929 \]

Step 3: Calculate the total of \((\text{runs scored})^2 + (\text{runs allowed})^2\)

\[ 630036 + 452929 = 1086965 \]

Step 4: Compute the Win Ratio

Substituting the values into the win ratio formula:

\[ \text{Win Ratio} = \frac{630036}{1086965} \]

Calculating the division:

\[ \text{Win Ratio} \approx 0.579 \]

Step 5: Calculate the Expected Wins in a 162-game season

Now, we compute the expected number of wins:

\[ \text{Expected Wins} = \text{Win Ratio} \times 162 \]

Substituting the win ratio value:

\[ \text{Expected Wins} \approx 0.579 \times 162 \approx 93.78 \]

Rounding to the nearest whole number, the expected number of wins for the team would be 94 wins.

Final Summary

  • The expected number of wins for a team that scored 794 runs and allowed 673 runs in a 162-game season is 94 wins.