Asked by Denise
Help!!! I'm not really good at Bayes' Theorem. Can you please walk me through.
In the current second year class of a top ranked US university, all students come from three states in the US . Kansas, Illinois, and Ohio supply respectively 40%, 50%, and 10% of the students. The failure rate of students is 4%, 2%, and 6% respectively.
What is the probability that a student chosen at random will fail?
Given that a student fails , what is the probability that he or she came form Kansas?
In the current second year class of a top ranked US university, all students come from three states in the US . Kansas, Illinois, and Ohio supply respectively 40%, 50%, and 10% of the students. The failure rate of students is 4%, 2%, and 6% respectively.
What is the probability that a student chosen at random will fail?
Given that a student fails , what is the probability that he or she came form Kansas?
Answers
Answered by
Damon
say 100 students
40 from Ka .04*40 = 1.6 fails
50 from Ill .02 * 50 = 1 fails
10 from Oh .06 * 10 = .6 fails
total failures = 1.6+1+.6 = 3.2
That is 3.2/100 = 3.2 % = .032
3.2 fail, 1.6 of whom are from Ka
1.6/3.2 = .5 or 50%
BUT you said use Bayes so
P(Ka if failed) =P(failed if Ka)P(Ka)/P(fail)
= .04 ( .4/.032) = .5 whew, that had me worried :)
40 from Ka .04*40 = 1.6 fails
50 from Ill .02 * 50 = 1 fails
10 from Oh .06 * 10 = .6 fails
total failures = 1.6+1+.6 = 3.2
That is 3.2/100 = 3.2 % = .032
3.2 fail, 1.6 of whom are from Ka
1.6/3.2 = .5 or 50%
BUT you said use Bayes so
P(Ka if failed) =P(failed if Ka)P(Ka)/P(fail)
= .04 ( .4/.032) = .5 whew, that had me worried :)
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