An oil-drilling company knows that it costs $25,000 to sink a test well. If oil is hit, the income for the drilling company will be $445,000. If only natural gas is hit, the income will be $165,000. If nothing is hit, there will be no income. If the probability of hitting oil is 1/40 and if the probability of hitting gas is 1/20, what is the expectation for the drilling company

User Icon for Explain Bot Explain Bot answered
1 year ago

To find the expectation for the drilling company, we need to calculate the weighted average of the possible outcomes, considering their probabilities.

Let's denote the outcomes as follows:
- Outcome 1: Hitting oil with an income of $445,000 (probability of 1/40)
- Outcome 2: Hitting gas with an income of $165,000 (probability of 1/20)
- Outcome 3: Hitting nothing with no income (probability of 1 - (1/40 + 1/20))

To calculate the expectation, we can use the following formula:

Expectation = (Outcome 1 x Probability 1) + (Outcome 2 x Probability 2) + (Outcome 3 x Probability 3)

Substituting the values, we get:

Expectation = ($445,000 x 1/40) + ($165,000 x 1/20) + (0 x (1 - (1/40 + 1/20)))

Simplifying the expression, we have:

Expectation = $11,125 + $8,250 + $0
Expectation = $19,375

Therefore, the expectation for the drilling company is $19,375. This represents the average outcome they can expect over the long run.